Posts Tagged ‘Earth’

Increasing earthquakes?

Saturday, May 14th, 2011

Are earthquakes increasing in strength or frequency?

Just found myself in a debate where the opposition claims earthquakes is on the rise (judgement day, wrath of god, etc..), being a skeptic I of course needed evidence, and where better to get it than to analyse it for myself from raw data?

How many earthquakes are there?
I went to the United States Geological Survey for the raw data, they have a pretty big list of “selected earthquakes of general historic interest” (6.0+) earthquakes recorded (ordered by magnitude, strongest quake first)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/historical_mag_big.php

I then made a little computer program to parse the text, and output it in csv format:
java program: Test.java
data text file: quakes.txt (program input)
csv result file: quakes.csv (program output)

The output from the data was opened in a spreadsheet for further analysis. There are 722 quakes in the input data file. I used the data from the period 1900 to 2010 in the statistics below (660 of the 722 total data entries).

The data in table form

6+ 7+ 8+
1900 9 5 1
1905 14 12 5
1910 14 9 1
1915 9 6 0
1920 10 8 3
1925 15 10 0
1930 20 13 4
1935 12 7 2
1940 16 15 4
1945 21 18 5
1950 21 11 3
1955 20 18 3
1960 12 10 3
1965 34 18 3
1970 21 13 2
1975 18 12 0
1980 15 4 0
1985 17 6 1
1990 17 11 1
1995 31 21 1
2000 110 50 5
2005 194 67 8

The first column is the date of the quakes, the next 3 are number of earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 6, 7 and 8 respectively.
Data is grouped into 5 years.. so the first row with year 1900, is data from 1900 to 1904, followed by 1905 to 1909, etc..

Graph
Earhquake frequency last 110 years

Click for larger version

Conclusion
This graph makes it look like earthquakes are running rampant, and you might have seen a very similar graph on the Internet (YouTube and other places), used by conspiracy cranks as an argument that earthquakes are increasing. But fortunately this graph is very misleading.

The data used to make it is complete rubbish, to quote the page they are collected from: “selected earthquakes of general historic interest”.. These quakes have been hand picked as the most interesting ones, and the data has a HUGE bias towards newer earthquakes, so you can’t make any meaningful statistics out of it (except if you are making statistics of which years the guy who compiled the data finds “interesting”).

Maybe we should try and remake the graphs using some good solid data..

== Real Data ==

A scientist at the USGS was kind enough to send me a datafile with all the 7.0+ earthquakes from 1900 to 2010 (all the registered quakes, not filtered in any way).

Making some graphs from those data yields results consistent with what the experts on earthquakes are saying.. They are totally random and unpredictable, and there has been no increase of earthquakes since we started recording them:

Frequency of earthquakes from 1900 to 2010. Click for bigger version:
Earthquake frequency, 1900 to 2010

Distribution of earthquakes by month:
Earthquakes by month

Distribution of earthquakes by day of month, (day 31 omitted for obvious reasons):
Earthquakes by day of  month

Distribution of earthquakes by hour of day:
Earthquakes by hour of day

Exponential ferret

Monday, March 21st, 2011

Last night a ferret just stood idly on the floor for about half a minute just staring blankly at us. It looked a bit like she was really concentrating, so the first hypothesis to explain this strange behavior was that she was trying to create a copy of herself through agamogenesis (asexual reproduction). This naturally led to the notion of a ferret able to replicate itself once every minute, and seeing that playing with exponential growth is always fun, this scenario deserves some illustrations:

0 minutes

one ferret.

1 minute

WOW!, did you see that? That ferret just duplicated!

3 minutes

Sweet, 8 ferrets. This is awesome.

5 minutes

Ehm, I love ferrets but 32 is a bit much.. how do you stop this thing?

18 minutes

Help! 268’000 ferrets just filled and breached the entire volume of our ~200 cubic meter apartment!

23 minutes

Neighborhood overrun, time to evacuate.

35 minutes

The blue dot is me, speeding away from the 50 square kilometer sea of ferrets half a meter deep.

48 minutes

Despite speeding like crazy I was just overtaken by a huge wave of ferrets, twice the area of Rhode Island and 30 meters tall.. By now there are 281 trillion ferrets in Norway.

1 hour

The 1 billion billion ferrets now cover all of Scandinavia with a height of the Eiffel tower

1 hour 15 minutes

Ferrets now rule the earth. covering the entire surface of the planet, filling up all the oceans, in a huge ferret sea 5 times the height of mount everest.
the 37 sextillion ferrets weight about 1/3 of the moon.

1 hour 23 minutes

The ferrets now have the same mass as the earth.

1 hour 55 minutes*

The ferrets now weigh 13’000 times more than our sun, the speed at which they can expand is limited, so the pressure and heat is extreme, this makes the huge ball of ferrets shine more powerful that any star, while a black hole has formed at the center.

2 hours 23 minutes

Ferrets now weigh the same as our entire galaxy, have formed a supermassive black hole and things are starting to get nasty.

3 hours

At 30 times the mass of the observable universe, outputting extreme amounts of energy through a geometrically challenged universe, the laws of physics are probably breaking down and fusing together again for the first time since the big bang.. It’s safe to say the ferrets have ruined reality as we know it.

 

Note: What happens after about 1 hour 30 minutes gets pretty speculative, it’s hard trying to apply the laws of physics to something that is physically impossible :)

Supermoon terrorizes small Norwegian village!

Wednesday, March 9th, 2011

It’s hard being a skeptic sometimes..
Today I saw a particularly silly story in the local Newspaper: “Supermånen Sprer frykt” or “Supermoon spreads fear”.

To sum it up, in 10 days the moon will be closer to the earth than it has been in 19 years.
The newspaper then goes on to list a bunch of conspiracy theory bullshit about several times when the moon has been at its closest to the earth, earthquakes/tsunamies/etc. occurred.

The moons orbit is not a perfect circle, so the distance from the moon to the earth varies between roughly 350’000 km and 400’000 km.

The moon’s effect on the tides is around 60-70% and the sun makes up 40-30%, so of course when the moon gets closer the tides get more extreme, and unless I made an error in the calculations below, the difference in gravitational force between the earth and the moon from when the moon is farthest away and closest should be 13.764%

= 13% difference

Update: It seems the formula I used above is the “shared” gravitational force between the earth and the moon, Phil plait comes up with a maximum 50% increase in the moons gravitational effect on the earth, which is a more useful number. Also he’s an astronomer, so I’d take his word over mine.. On anything but Star Trek trivia :)

When the moon is at it’s closest and at the same time line up with the sun, we get what’s called the Perigean spring time. In other words, a big ass tide :)

 

Earthquakes and statistics!

They also cited a professor in astronomy (they actually referred to him as professor in astrology, but later changed the article and deleted the comments pointing this out).

The paper suggests that earthquakes can be caused by the moon being to close to the earth (sounds like a 50′s sci-fi movie), but what I find quite surprising is the rather strange quote from the professor:
“I would be very surprised, if there was a really strong earthquake at this particular date”. and that while living in California, he witnessed an powerful earthquake on the day before a “supermoon”.

The USGS defines a strong earthquake as anything with a magnitude of 6.0 or above (Christchurch was 6.3). On average there 150 earthquake like this yearly.

So the chance for a strong earthquake to happen on march 19th, is 41%.

If we however include the day before and after, the chance increases to 79%.

If we where to include 2 days before and after, we’re up to 92%.

So it’s pretty certain that a big earthquake will take place on or around march 19th, and it’s pretty certain crazy doomsday nuts will say there is a connection between that statistically predicted earthquake and the evil moon. The chance of the quake hitting a densely populated area however is much smaller, so maybe the nuts won’t notice it

update 11.03.2011: As statistics predicted a large earthquake did occur. It did hit a densely populated area, and caused a huge tsunami that hit the northwestern coast of Japan causing massive damages and deaths :(

The newspaper actually takes this flawed thinking to a whole new level, posting a picture from a earthquake/tsunami in Indonesia, making the point that it “happened only 2 weeks before a supermoon” (oooouh spooky!!).

This is just moronic.. the chance of a strong earthquake being 2 weeks before or after a certain date is 99.999977369 %

Note: all my calculations are based upon dates of earthquakes being relatively evenly distributed through the year, as confirmed by USGS

Kent Hovind is back?

Friday, January 28th, 2011

I recently read on twitter that Kent Hovind was released from jail!
The tweet came from Michael Shermer, however this fortunately proved to be false. Kent is still locked away and not scheduled for release until 2015

For those who don’t know, Dr. Kent Hovind (Not really a doctor, but he likes to think that piece of paper from a diploma mill makes him one) is a creationist who thinks that the world is 6000 years old.

  • He thinks evolution (and even mathematics) is a religion.
  • The grand canyon was formed in a couple of weeks.
  • Thinks humans at dinosaurs lived at the same time (The Flintstones hypothesis).
  • Sentenced for 10 years for tax fraud (Denying evolution just makes you an idiot, but denying taxation will kinda ruin your day).

If you’re interested in his fantastically erroneous claims filled with logical fallacies and outright lies, you could check out drdino.com

I personally avoid such sites, because no matter how many times you point out their errors, these fundamentalists will continue using the same old shot to pieces arguments like nothing happened.

For example the latest post on Dr Dino is an excellent display in being wrong:

“Nobody has ever seen ANY plant or animal (including apes and humans) produce ANYTHING other than their own kind”

This is a false continuum fallacy, which is like saying one brick is not a pyramid, and adding just one brick does not make it a pyramid.

Adding one brick millions of times will in fact make a pyramid, just as many very small genetic modifications over a huge amount of time will make a human.

This argument also has a straw man fallacy. No scientist says there is a sharp line between being a pre-human ape, and being a modern human. Just like there is no sharp line between being a pile of bricks and being a pyramid. Small progress over time is one of the cornerstones of evolution, and is almost always (deliberately) misunderstood by creationists. The notion that an animal will over ONE generation make something so different that it’s an entirely new species is just silly and has nothing to do with evolution (it does however happen in X-men).

“Every farmer on planet earth throughout all of recorded history has counted on evolution NOT happening! When the farmers plant corn, they expect (and get) CORN—EVERY TIME!”

This is the same argument as above just using plants instead of humans (very clever), containing the same logical fallacies. Instead of simply repeating my reply from above, I’ll reply with images:

Banana 7000 years ago:
Wild Banana

Modern Banana:

Of course nobody in their right mind believes you can plant the first image (oldskool banana) and get a modern one. However evolving it over the course of thousands of year is no problem. In fact almost all plants, vegetables and fruits used in agriculture today has been specifically evolved over thousands of years (by artificial selection instead of natural) to make stuff we humans find appealing.

For more fantastic creationist banana based arguments, check out this awesome video

“There are billions of bones in the ground but no “record.” Some people put their interpretation on those bones but NONE have dates on them when they are found and none can talk”

Is “lying” a logical fallacy? guess not.. There have been discovered hundreds of millions of fossils all over the world, and they make up a record (small and simple life forms are the oldest, and diversity and complexity increase over time). Fossils can be dated with a very high accuracy (1% error on radiometric dating from 60 million years ago), Kent of course does not believe in this kind of dating since it conflicts with his religious views. The bones talk by showing how creatures have gradually changed over time.

“The idea is that evolution happened so fast that no evidence was preserved”

Punctuated equilibrium is not a required feature of evolution, it’s just an unproven hypothesis that states that evolution happens very quickly (quickly compared to geological timeframes, it’s still taking tens of thousands of years). Considering how few animals turn into fossils out of all animals that ever lived, rapid changes over a 50’000 year period of evolution could easily be lost

There is not a scientific consensus regarding the punctuated equilibrium hypothesis, like there is for the theory and scientific fact of evolution. Evolution as a whole does not in any way depend on this hypothesis (which just tries to explain minor details that can be explained by other mechanisms).

“If you have ever broken even ONE of God’s laws (….such as lying,….) I suggest you get a good lawyer”

“I know one who has NEVER lost a case. He is my advocate for judgment day”

It must be nice being able to lie your ass off, when you got Jesus as a lawyer..

Earth hour sucks (again)

Saturday, March 27th, 2010

For some reason Earth hour managed to sneak up on me this year, and has just passed. Leaving a trail of idiots who can now feel good about themselves for “taking action”.

Earth Hour Bullshit

I’ve said it before, and I say it again.. Earth hour is bullshit, and their list of “actions” you can take is even more retarded than last year, in addition to spamming facebook, youtube, flickr, myspace, twitter and annoying your friends (The only “action” you can take for Earth hour, is to promote Earth hour) they’ve added this gem that illustrates the moronic lack of substance of this event:

“Make an Earth Hour Lantern as a symbol of hope for the future”..

Fuck you, if I wanted a better future I’m sure I could find something more productive to do than lantern making >:(